INSIGHTS

2024.05.13

R&D DISCUSSION Vol. 51

Next-generation transportation and future urban planning [Part 1]

Professor Akinori Morimoto, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

R&D DISCUSSION TOP

Q: What kind of urban planning efforts are there both in Japan and overseas toward "sustainable urban development," one of the goals of the SDGs? Also, what are the current challenges?

A: At the G7 Cities Ministers' Meeting held in Takamatsu, Kagawa in July 2023, discussions and exchanges of opinions were held on the theme of "Collaboration for Sustainable Urban Development" from three perspectives: "Resilient cities with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions," "Inclusive cities that take into account diverse needs," and "Cities that utilize digital technology," and common international issues and major directions were confirmed.

When thinking about the future of urban spaces in Japan, the first thing to keep in mind is population decline. Conventional urban planning is based on the assumption of population growth, so there is no precedent for urban planning in the context of a declining population. We have been discussing this with experts for the past 10 to 20 years, but the reality is that we have not yet come up with a clear direction.
Looking at Japan's future population projections, it is clear that population decline will continue in the future, and we must consider the risks this poses to cities. In the approximately 50 years from 1969, when the current City Planning Act was enacted, to 2020, the population has increased by 1.3 times, and the area of DIDs (densely inhabited districts) has expanded by 3.4 times. In order to avoid risks in urban areas, such as the increase in vacant houses and vacant land, which are now becoming social problems, and the increasing burden of maintenance costs for urban facilities, we believe that it is urgent to shift to a sustainable urban structure, including in rural areas. Due to the declining birthrate and aging population, the financial situation of most core cities is expected to worsen in the future, but research has shown that if the actual length of roads is reduced by 10%, the "future burden ratio" will decrease by 1.2%. In other words, if the infrastructure that needs to be maintained is reduced, the debt will also decrease accordingly. In addition, the "White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism" shows that the higher the population density of a city or town, the lower the administrative cost per person, and that the maintenance cost of urban facilities can be reduced by living in the city center, that is, by living together [Slide 1].

A concrete measure derived from this situation is the formation of a concentrated urban structure (compact city). Concentrating people in urban areas makes it easier to establish a variety of industries and streamlines administrative costs, but in some municipalities in rural areas, it is difficult to consolidate people who live scattered across the country into one area. In response, we propose a "network-type compact city," in which the central city area is at the core, and smaller bases are created in non-concentrated areas, with transportation connecting the two.

Next-generation transportation systems are expected to play an important role in this transportation area. I call this a "human-centered transportation system," and I expect that the time will come when LRT (next-generation streetcars), BRT (bus rapid transit), personal vehicles, self-driving cars and buses will be connected to AI and ICT, allowing seamless movement. In compact cities, the urban structure will be dominated by walking and public transportation in concentrated areas [red parts of slide 2], and individual transportation such as bicycles and personal vehicles in non-concentrated areas [blue parts of slide 2]. Personally, I believe that if we can attract young people and have them settle by planning attractive urban development in the red parts, we will gradually realize a compact city.

[Slide 1] Estimates of municipal population density and administrative costs per person/urban facility maintenance costs
[Slide 2] A transportation network that seamlessly connects concentrated and non-concentrated areas

Q: Do you think that "network-type compact cities," in which intensive and non-intensive areas are zoned using next-generation transportation, will develop overseas as well? Or is this something unique to Japan, and that a different form of development is expected overseas?

A: When I participated in the "Public-Private High-Level Roundtable for the G7 City Ministers' Meeting" held in March 2023, I spoke about compact cities, and participants from other countries repeatedly asked me, "Why can you say that making cities smaller is a vision for the future, when there is a global trend toward urbanization and the population living in cities is increasing?"
It is true that urban populations are growing rapidly around the world, and while new town development and infrastructure development are necessary to improve the deteriorating urban environment, many countries are actually experiencing declining birth rates. Japan's total fertility rate was 1.34 in 2020, while Taiwan's was 0.99 and South Korea's was even lower at 0.84. Japan has entered a phase of low birth rates and an aging society one step ahead of Japan, but there are many countries that are experiencing a declining birth rate. I explained that if the total population of a country decreases, the population will eventually decrease in high-density urban areas, or there may be a polarization between high-density and low-density areas, as in Japan. When I said, "Japan's compact cities should be one of the models for solving the problem when your country faces population decline in the future," he understood, saying, "Indeed, it is a necessary effort to prepare."
There are areas where the population is accumulating and in need of maintenance and development, and there are areas where the population is draining and depopulating, and we need to make plans for both types of "cities." There is a lot of knowledge around the world about urban planning for cases where the population is increasing, but there is almost no knowledge about cases where the population is decreasing. The only case was in the former East Germany, where the population dropped sharply after the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990, and so "downsizing" was carried out by demolishing the upper floors of apartment buildings and downsizing them. However, there are very few examples around the world of a gradual population decrease of a few percent. I think that Japanese urban planning will become a model case in this regard.

  1. G7 Cities Ministers' Meeting: A new meeting established at the 2022 G7 German Summit, the first meeting discussed topics such as "urban resilience" and "responding to climate change." Japan, which will chair the G7 in 2023, held the second meeting in Kagawa.
  2. Future burden ratio: An index showing the degree of potential future financial pressure, expressed as the number of times the financial burden that local governments will have to spend in the future compared with the size of general financial resources expected to be received under standard conditions.

[Slides 1 and 2: Provided by Mr. Akito Morimoto]

Continued in Part 2

PROFILE

Professor, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

Akinori Morimoto

Akinori Morimoto

Born in Yamaguchi Prefecture in 1964. Graduated from the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University. Doctor of Engineering, Engineer (Construction). Previously worked as a researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), assistant professor and professor at Utsunomiya University. Specializes in urban planning and transportation planning. His main research themes include next-generation transportation, compact cities, smart cities, TOD strategies, and traffic safety. He is currently the president of the City Planning Institute of Japan, executive director of the Japan Transport Policy Research Association, and representative director of the Disaster Prevention Academic Collaboration. He has served as chair of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "Study Group on Measures for the Use of Autonomous Driving Technology in Urban Transportation," chairman of the Tokyo Metropolitan Land Use Review Board, and chairman of the Shizuoka Prefecture Urban Planning Council, among many others. His main publications include "Illustrated Urban Planning Made Easy" (edited and written by Gakugei Publishing, 2021) and "City and Transportation Planning: An Integrated Approach" (Routledge, 2021).

OTHER DISCUSSIONS

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.56

Mind change――
Aiming for a company that will develop into the future [Part 2]

Hidehito Kawahara, President and CEO of ALFA PMC

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.55

Mind change――
Aiming for a company that will develop into the future [Part 2]

Hidehito Kawahara, President and CEO of ALFA PMC

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.54

Mind change――
Aiming to become a company that will develop into the future [Part 1]

Hidehito Kawahara, President and CEO of ALFA PMC

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.53

Next-generation transportation and future urban planning [Part 2]

Professor Akinori Morimoto, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.52

Next-generation transportation and future urban planning [Part 2]

Professor Akinori Morimoto, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.51

Next-generation transportation and future urban planning [Part 1]

Professor Akinori Morimoto, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.50

The world is full of possibilities
--Perceive playfully and take action! [Part 2]

Nobuyuki Ueda Professor Emeritus of Doshisha Women's College of Liberal Arts, Director of Neo Museum

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.49

The world is full of possibilities
--Perceive playfully and take action! [Part 2]

Nobuyuki Ueda Professor Emeritus of Doshisha Women's College of Liberal Arts, Director of Neo Museum

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.48

The world is full of possibilities
--Perceive playfully and take action! [Part 1]

Nobuyuki Ueda Professor Emeritus of Doshisha Women's College of Liberal Arts, Director of Neo Museum

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.47

Light is Life: Humans on the Solar Earth [Part 2]

Hiroyasu Shouji ShojiLighting Designer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.46

Light is Life: Humans on the Solar Earth [Part 1]

Hiroyasu Shouji ShojiLighting Designer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol45

Building fire-resistant wooden buildings [Part 2]

Noboru Yasui, Architect and Chairman of NPO team Timberize

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.44

Building fire-resistant wooden buildings [Part 1]

Noboru Yasui, Architect and Chairman of NPO team Timberize

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.43

What is a sign? What is sign design?
What? [Part 2]

Toshiaki Yashima Information Designer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.42

What is a sign? What is sign design?
What? [Part 2]

Toshiaki Yashima Information Designer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.41

What is a sign? What is sign design?
What? [Part 1]

Toshiaki Yashima Information Designer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.40

Data-driven urban development that makes people happy [Part 2]

Taro Hitokoto Director of Neural Pocket Co., Ltd.

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.39

Data-driven urban development that makes people happy [Part 1]

Taro Hitokoto Director of Neural Pocket Co., Ltd.

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.38

Japan's Strategy for Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050 [Part 2]

Takuzo Saito Director of the Evaluation and Assessment Department, Housing and Construction Center, Better Living Foundation

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.37

Japan's strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 [Part 1]

Takuzo Saito Director of the Evaluation and Assessment Department, Housing and Construction Center, Better Living Foundation

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.36

The "extra" required for architecture revealed through regional projects [Part 2]

Yasushi Takeuchi Professor, Tohoku Institute of Technology (-2021), President and CEO, Abisei Planning Co., Ltd. (2022-)

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.35

The "extra" required for architecture revealed through regional projects [Part 1]

Yasushi Takeuchi, Professor, Tohoku Institute of Technology (-2021), President and CEO, Abisei Planning Co., Ltd.

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.34

Before-Before Architecture Theory
Design techniques that unravel history [Part 2]

Toru Ajisaka, Professor, Kagoshima University

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.33

Before-Before Architecture Theory
Design techniques that unravel history [Part 1]

Toru Ajisaka, Professor, Kagoshima University

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.32

How to create a "water mass" that attracts adults
Turning aquariums into "media" through a customer-centric approach

Gen Nakamura Aquarium Producer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.31

How to create a "water mass" that attracts adults
Sunshine Aquarium "Oasis in the Sky" [Part 2]

Gen Nakamura Aquarium Producer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.30

How to create a "water mass" that attracts adults
Sunshine Aquarium "Oasis in the Sky" [Part 1]

Gen Nakamura Aquarium Producer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.29

Wellness and Performance Management
How to Live in a New Era Vol.2 [Part 2]

Takayuki Hirai
Deputy Director of the CHO Office at DeNA Co., Ltd.; Representative of Ibuki LLC

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.28

Wellness and Performance Management
How to Live in a New Era vol.2 [Part 1]

Takayuki Hirai
Deputy Director of the CHO Office at DeNA Co., Ltd.; Representative of Ibuki LLC

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.27

A work style that brings about innovation
How to Live in a New Era Vol.1 [Part 2]

Takahiro Sakamoto
Representative of SSIN LLC, Advisor of KOKUYO Co., Ltd.'s Work Style Reform Project

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.26

A work style that brings about innovation
How to Live in a New Era Vol.1 [Part 1]

Takahiro Sakamoto
Representative of SSIN LLC, Advisor of KOKUYO Co., Ltd.'s Work Style Reform Project

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.25

Looking at the future design process through "Renovation" [Part 2]

Masataka Baba Architect

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.24

Looking at the future design process through "Renovation" [Part 2]

Masataka Baba Architect

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.23

Looking at the future design process through "Renovation" [Part 1]

Masataka Baba Architect

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.22

Architecture in Film: Special Effects TV and Comedy Films of the 1960s [Part 2]

Tatsuo Iso IsoArchitectural Journalist

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.21

Architecture in Film: Special Effects TV and Comedy Films of the 1960s [Part 1]

Tatsuo Iso IsoArchitectural Journalist

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.20

Pioneering the future with the power of design
Discovering Young Artists [Part 2]

Toshiki Kiriyama Director

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.19

Pioneering the future with the power of design
Discovering Young Artists [Part 2]

Toshiki Kiriyama Director

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.18

Pioneering the future with the power of design
Discovering Young Artists [Part 1]

Toshiki Kiriyama Director

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.17

The present and future of theater space
Research on Plaza Spaces Vol.3 [Part 2]

Masaji Ito + Kenji Maruyama Theater Workshop Co., Ltd.

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.16

The present and future of theater space
Research on Plaza Spaces Vol.3 [Part 1]

Masaji Ito + Kenji Maruyama Theater Workshop Co., Ltd.

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.15

How to create public spaces with 100% occupancy rate
Research on Plaza Spaces Vol.2 [Part 2]

Yuko Yamashita Yamashita, Network creator, Hiroba-nist

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.14

How to create public spaces with 100% occupancy rate
Research on Plaza Spaces Vol.2 [Part 1]

Yuko Yamashita Yamashita, Network creator, Hiroba-nist

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.13

Designing "social fluctuations"
Research on Plaza Spaces Vol.1 [Part 2]

Shoji Okabe
Evangelist at Snow Peak Business Solutions Co., Ltd., and co-representative of the nonprofit organization "Hama no Toudai"

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.12

Designing "social fluctuations"
Research on Plaza Spaces Vol.1 [Part 1]

Shoji Okabe
Evangelist at Snow Peak Business Solutions Co., Ltd., and co-representative of the nonprofit organization "Hama no Toudai"

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.11

A workplace that fosters innovation
Changing the environment changes the way you work [Part 2]

Tetsuo Kobori Architect

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.10

A workplace that fosters innovation
If the environment changes, the way you work will change [Part 2]

Tetsuo Kobori Architect

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.09

A workplace that fosters innovation
Changing the environment changes the way you work [Part 1]

Tetsuo Kobori Architect

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.08

Environmentally friendly architecture and healthy spaces drive the economy
ESG Investment and Wellness Offices [Part 2]

Shinichi Tanabe Professor, Department of Architecture, School of Creative Science and Engineering, Waseda University

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.07

Environmentally friendly architecture and healthy spaces drive the economy
ESG Investment and Wellness Offices [Part 1]

Shinichi Tanabe Professor, Department of Architecture, School of Creative Science and Engineering, Waseda University

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.06

The centripetal force of a single sketch that depicts a scene from the future [Part 2]

Tetsuo Fukuda Industrial Designer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.05

The centripetal force of a single sketch that depicts a scene from the future [Part 1]

Tetsuo Fukuda Industrial Designer

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.04

Thinking about future redevelopment from postwar "buildings" [Part 2]

Shunsuke Kurakata historian

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.03

Thinking about future redevelopment from postwar "buildings" [Part 1]

Shunsuke Kurakata historian

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.02

Architecture: Perspectives from Industrial Design [Part 2]

Kozo Yamada, Director and Advisor, GK Design Corporation

R&D DISCUSSION Vol.01

Architecture: Perspectives from Industrial Design [Part 1]

Kozo Yamada, Director and Advisor, GK Design Corporation
R&D

Update : 2018.09.21

Tags

PAGE TOP