2024.05.13
R&D DISCUSSION Vol. 51
Next-generation transportation and future urban planning [Part 1]
Professor Akinori Morimoto, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, The City Planning Institute of Japan
Q: What kind of urban planning efforts are there both in Japan and overseas toward "sustainable urban development," one of the goals of the SDGs? Also, what are the current challenges?
A : 2023年7月に香川・高松市で開催された「G7都市大臣会合」では、「持続可能な都市の発展に向けた協働」をテーマに3つの視点――――「温室効果ガス排出のネット・ゼロでレジリエントな都市」「多様なニーズを考慮したインクルーシブな都市」「デジタル技術を活用した都市」で議論・意見交換が行われ、国際的な共通課題や大きな方向性について確認がなされました。
日本の未来の都市空間を考える時に、まず念頭に置くべきことは人口減少です。そもそも従来の都市計画は、人口の増加を前提にしているので、人口が減少していく中での都市計画は前例がなく、この10年、20年ずっと有識者の皆さんと議論しているのですが、なかなか明確な方向性が見えてこないのが実情です。
日本の将来推計人口を見ると、この先も人口減少が続くことは明らかであり、それが都市に与えるリスクを考えなければなりません。1969年に現行の都市計画法が施行されてから2020年までの約50年間に、人口は1.3倍に増加し、DID（人口集中地区）面積は3.4倍に拡大しています。今まさに社会問題として顕在化している空き家・空き地の増加や、都市施設の維持管理コストの負担増大など、都市部のリスクを回避するためには、地方を含めた持続可能な都市構造への転換が急務であると考えます。少子高齢化によって、今後ほとんどの中核都市は財政状況が悪化していくことが見込まれますが、道路実延長を10%削減した場合、「将来負担比率」は1.2%減少するという研究結果があります。つまり、維持管理するべきインフラを削減すれば、それだけ負債も小さくなるわけです。また「国土交通白書」を見ると、人口密度が高い市町村ほど1人あたりの行政コストは低くなり、都市施設の維持管理コストは都心居住型、つまり集まって住むことにより抑えられることがわかります［スライド1］。
A concrete measure derived from this situation is the formation of a concentrated urban structure (compact city). Concentrating people in urban areas makes it easier to establish a variety of industries and streamlines administrative costs, but in some municipalities in rural areas, it is difficult to consolidate people who live scattered across the country into one area. In response, we propose a "network-type compact city," in which the central city area is at the core, and smaller bases are created in non-concentrated areas, with transportation connecting the two.
Next-generation transportation systems are expected to play an important role in this transportation area. I call this a "human-centered transportation system," and I expect that the time will come when LRT (next-generation streetcars), BRT (bus rapid transit), personal vehicles, self-driving cars and buses will be connected to AI and ICT, allowing seamless movement. In compact cities, the urban structure will be dominated by walking and public transportation in concentrated areas [red parts of slide 2], and individual transportation such as bicycles and personal vehicles in non-concentrated areas [blue parts of slide 2]. Personally, I believe that if we can attract young people and have them settle by planning attractive urban development in the red parts, we will gradually realize a compact city.
Q: Do you think that "network-type compact cities," in which intensive and non-intensive areas are zoned using next-generation transportation, will develop overseas as well? Or is this something unique to Japan, and that a different form of development is expected overseas?
A: When I participated in the "Public-Private High-Level Roundtable for the G7 City Ministers' Meeting" held in March 2023, I spoke about compact cities, and participants from other countries repeatedly asked me, "Why can you say that making cities smaller is a vision for the future, when there is a global trend toward urbanization and the population living in cities is increasing?"
It is true that urban populations are growing rapidly around the world, and while new town development and infrastructure development are necessary to improve the deteriorating urban environment, many countries are actually experiencing declining birth rates. Japan's total fertility rate was 1.34 in 2020, while Taiwan's was 0.99 and South Korea's was even lower at 0.84. Japan has entered a phase of low birth rates and an aging society one step ahead of Japan, but there are many countries that are experiencing a declining birth rate. I explained that if the total population of a country decreases, the population will eventually decrease in high-density urban areas, or there may be a polarization between high-density and low-density areas, as in Japan. When I said, "Japan's compact cities should be one of the models for solving the problem when your country faces population decline in the future," he understood, saying, "Indeed, it is a necessary effort to prepare."
There are areas where the population is accumulating and in need of maintenance and development, and there are areas where the population is draining and depopulating, and we need to make plans for both types of "cities." There is a lot of knowledge around the world about urban planning for cases where the population is increasing, but there is almost no knowledge about cases where the population is decreasing. The only case was in the former East Germany, where the population dropped sharply after the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990, and so "downsizing" was carried out by demolishing the upper floors of apartment buildings and downsizing them. However, there are very few examples around the world of a gradual population decrease of a few percent. I think that Japanese urban planning will become a model case in this regard.
- G7 Cities Ministers' Meeting: A new meeting established at the 2022 G7 German Summit, the first meeting discussed topics such as "urban resilience" and "responding to climate change." Japan, which will chair the G7 in 2023, held the second meeting in Kagawa.
- Future burden ratio: An index showing the degree of potential future financial pressure, expressed as the number of times the financial burden that local governments will have to spend in the future compared with the size of general financial resources expected to be received under standard conditions.
[Slides 1 and 2: Provided by Mr. Akito Morimoto]
PROFILE
Professor, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan
Akinori Morimoto
Akinori Morimoto
Born in Yamaguchi Prefecture in 1964. Graduated from the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University. Doctor of Engineering, Engineer (Construction). Previously worked as a researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), assistant professor and professor at Utsunomiya University. Specializes in urban planning and transportation planning. His main research themes include next-generation transportation, compact cities, smart cities, TOD strategies, and traffic safety. He is currently the president of the City Planning Institute of Japan, executive director of the Japan Transport Policy Research Association, and representative director of the Disaster Prevention Academic Collaboration. He has served as chair of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "Study Group on Measures for the Use of Autonomous Driving Technology in Urban Transportation," chairman of the Tokyo Metropolitan Land Use Review Board, and chairman of the Shizuoka Prefecture Urban Planning Council, among many others. His main publications include "Illustrated Urban Planning Made Easy" (edited and written by Gakugei Shuppansha, 2021) and "City and Transportation Planning: An Integrated Approach" (Routledge, 2021).
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