INSIGHTS

2024.05.13

R&D DISCUSSION Vol. 53

Next-generation transportation and future urban planning [Part 2]

Professor Akinori Morimoto, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, The City Planning Institute of Japan

R&D DISCUSSION TOP

Q: I think people's behavior has changed significantly with and after COVID-post-COVID, but what impact do you think this will have on transportation and urban development in the future?

A : コロナ禍では外出の機会がずいぶん減りましたが、実はその前から外出率は低下し始めていました。東京都市圏交通計画協議会が定期的に行う「東京都市圏パーソントリップ調査」では、東京都市圏の総人口が増加しているにもかかわらず、2018年に調査開始以来初めて移動回数が減少しました。20代〜60代の全年齢層で外出しない人が増えていて、若年層にその傾向が顕著です。これは日本に限ったことではなく、米国や英国でも、若者の移動回数が大きく減少しています。
日本は2015年に若者と高齢者の移動回数が逆転し、米国と英国もそれに続いています。これは世界的に若者のライフスタイルが変化したためです。テレワーク、オンラインショッピング、動画配信サービス、フードデリバリーなどが定着し、家から出なくてもいろいろなことができるようになりました。この傾向は、おそらく今後も続いていくでしょう。人は動かないけれど、モノはどんどん動く、という時代になりそうです。トリップの発生率が下がるということは、公共交通のインフラ整備はもう上限が見えているということ。加えて、当面の間、モノを運ぶためのインフラが不足するということで、対策を考えなければなりません。
海外の事例ですが、ロサンゼルスの都心部でテック企業のテレワークが進み、周辺の飲食店や小売店が次々と閉店し、オフィスワーカーも戻ってこないため、オフィスの空室率が30％を超えたそうです。都市の中心地に特定の企業体が集積することは大きなリスクにもなり得るということです。
2021年に東京都市圏交通計画協議会が、前述のパーソントリップ調査をもとに新しいライフスタイルに対応した将来の都市像を公表しました。これまでは郊外に住んで都心で働くことが一般的でしたが、これからは職住近接型の都市にシフトしていくことを提唱しています。オンラインサービスの充実に対応して、都市の構造が緩やかに変わっていくのではないかと期待しています。

In relation to online services, I would like to touch on the impact that three-dimensional virtual spaces have on cities. One of the reasons for the decline in the rate of people going out may be that more people have a third place in cyberspace. Now, in the metaverse (a three-dimensional virtual space built on the Internet), people can use avatars to play games, shop, communicate, and enjoy a variety of other activities. The lifestyle of spending several hours a day in the metaverse is likely to spread, especially among the younger generation. In a survey conducted by McKinsey in 2022 of metaverse users, about 60% responded that "there are some actions that are preferable to perform in virtual space rather than in real space."

そこで注目したいのが「都市連動型メタバース」です。2023年のハロウィーン期間中、メタバースに渋谷の街を再現させた「バーチャル渋谷」のように、実在都市と仮想空間を連動させて、実在都市の経済や文化を拡大させる取り組みが出てきています。この都市連動型メタバースをうまく活用することで、フィジカル空間にも一定の効果が現れるのではないかと期待しています。
今、この実在都市と仮想空間を連動するための「新たな計画概念の創出」が求められているのですが、コンパクトシティとスマートシティの融合についても同様の課題があります。整備された交通インフラの周辺に人口を集積するコンパクトシティと、デジタル技術の活用によって移動の必要がなくなるスマートシティは相反する概念ですが、今後、この間を繋いでバランスを取るような、新しい都市モデルを考える必要があるわけです。我々の造語で、これを「スマートシェアリングシティ」と呼んでいます［スライド1］。社会と個人のどちらも利点を増やせるような構造を、スマートシェアリングシティとしてつくっていけたらいいと思っています。
また、それを支える「統合型プラットフォーム」の構築も必要です。国土交通省が取り組む、スマートシティの推進とデジタルツインシティの活用において、コアの部分となるのが統合型プラットフォームです。ビッグデータの格納と将来予測エンジンで成り立つデータプラットフォームで、日本全土のデジタルツインシティ化を目指しており、さらなる精度の向上と実装化に向けて開発が進められています。
そして最後に、運営していくための「組織づくり」も重要になりますが、これはなかなか解が出ない部分でもあります。MaaS発祥の地、ヘルシンキで展開するOpen MaaSの民間サービスは、コロナ禍で利用者が減少して資金力が低下し、システムのアップデートができなくなったため、現在は利用者が半分以下になったそうです。一方で、コロナ禍でも交通局が継続的に運営していた従来の公共交通サービスは、利用者を2倍近く増やしてきました。この事例からわかるのは、民間企業は迅速に魅力的なサービスを提供できる反面、何かあった時の持続性が非常に弱いということです。次世代のサービスを安定して供給するには、インフラに関わる事業は官民連携で進めることが望ましいですが、どのような体制がよいのか、我々もこれから模索していくことになると思います。

[Slide 1] New urban model: "Smart Sharing City"

Q: Will the tendency for metaverse users to prefer virtual space over real space become more pronounced in the future? I think that perhaps there will come a time when real space will be preferred as a backlash. What are your thoughts on this, Professor Morimoto?

A: Both are possible. I think that the period of self-restraint from going out due to the COVID-19 pandemic has made us realize the value of face-to-face meetings, that it is fun to meet people in person. On the other hand, what I feel through my research is that the world of the metaverse is getting closer and closer to real space. The immersive feeling when wearing VR glasses is truly amazing. As the functions of the metaverse become more complete, you will be able to experience a concert from the front row while staying at home, or gather and chat with a large number of friends without having to move, making it indistinguishable from reality. If that happens, you may become even more immersed in cyberspace and feel more comfortable, or conversely, interacting with people in the real world may become important.
When I talk with students researching the metaverse, they also want a sense of reality in cyberspace. In fact, technology already exists that can quantify smells and tastes and realistically reproduce them using special devices, so I expect the sense of immersion in cyberspace will only get stronger. Advances in technology will surely continue to change the awareness and lifestyles of users, so I think this is a field worth paying attention to and I look forward to seeing how it develops in the future.

  1. Tokyo Metropolitan Area Person Trip Survey: A survey of individuals' daily weekday travel habits among approximately 630,000 randomly selected households in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
  2. Smart city: A concept for cities that utilizes digital technology to improve sustainability and quality of life.
  3. Digital twin city: A digital model that reflects the real city in real time, collecting and analyzing a variety of data to reflect in the operation and management of the city.

[Slide 1: Provided by Mr. Akito Morimoto]

Back to Part 2

PROFILE

Professor, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

Akinori Morimoto

Akinori Morimoto

Born in Yamaguchi Prefecture in 1964. Graduated from the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University. Doctor of Engineering, Engineer (Construction). Previously worked as a researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), assistant professor and professor at Utsunomiya University. Specializes in urban planning and transportation planning. His main research themes include next-generation transportation, compact cities, smart cities, TOD strategies, and traffic safety. He is currently the president of the City Planning Institute of Japan, executive director of the Japan Transport Policy Research Association, and representative director of the Disaster Prevention Academic Collaboration. He has served as chair of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "Study Group on Measures for the Use of Autonomous Driving Technology in Urban Transportation," chairman of the Tokyo Metropolitan Land Use Review Board, and chairman of the Shizuoka Prefecture Urban Planning Council, among many others. His main publications include "Illustrated Urban Planning Made Easy" (edited and written by Gakugei Shuppansha, 2021) and "City and Transportation Planning: An Integrated Approach" (Routledge, 2021).

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Update : 2024.05.13

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